Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s state visit to Vietnam to meet his counterpart, Nguyen Phu Trong, is expected to have significant implications for the complex relationship between the two countries. The visit will likely witness an exchange of flowery compliments, highlighting the historic friendship between the communist-run neighbors. Vietnam is expected to join Xi’s “Community of Common Destiny,” a symbolic conception that challenges the prevailing US-led global order. This move would place China ahead of the US in their competition for Vietnam’s allegiance.
One of the key aspects of Xi’s visit is China’s offer to provide advanced railway technology to help Vietnam upgrade its transport infrastructure. This includes a rail link from southern China to the Vietnamese port of Haiphong, which passes through a region rich in rare earth deposits. As the world’s largest exporter and refiner of these minerals, China aims to secure its dominance in the production of electric vehicles and renewable energy.
However, the visit is unlikely to address sensitive issues such as the bitter territorial dispute in the South China Sea, historical grievances, or the impact of Chinese dams on the Mekong river. These points of friction are being openly discussed online in Vietnam, where the internet is less tightly regulated than in China.
Public sentiment in Vietnam towards China can be fiercely anti-Chinese, driven by a strong sense of nationalism and a historical fear of its giant northern neighbor. Although the communist leadership in Vietnam has managed these sentiments carefully, sporadic anti-Chinese protests and riots in the past have demonstrated their volatility. The authorities even banned the movie Barbie for appearing to show a map with China’s contested claims marked on it.
Despite the occasional tensions, China remains Vietnam’s largest trading partner and biggest foreign direct investor. The economic ties between the two countries continue to grow, with two-way trade approaching $200 billion per year. Vietnam’s leadership must balance its relations between China and the US-China rivalry while maintaining historically close ties with Russia.
Vietnam’s strategic outlook is that of a middle-sized power seeking to extract benefits while maintaining its independence and security. This approach, known as “bamboo diplomacy,” emphasizes flexibility in foreign policy and non-alignment with military alliances or siding with one country against another. Vietnam aims to be friends with all and an enemy of none.
However, China’s assertiveness in the region poses a challenge to Vietnam’s delicate balancing act. Vietnam’s decision to upgrade its relations with the US this year can be seen as a hedge against Chinese influence. The relationship between China and Vietnam will always be hostage to events, such as flare-ups in the South China Sea or any perceived high-handed actions by China.
As the state visit takes place, it is important to monitor the impact on regional dynamics, particularly in terms of the competition between China and the US for influence in Southeast Asia. The outcome of Xi’s visit and Vietnam’s response will shape the evolving power dynamics in the region and have implications for the larger geopolitical landscape.
