Venezuela’s opposition parties are preparing for the 2024 presidential election by holding a primary to select a unity candidate. This move comes as they aim to unite behind a single candidate to increase their chances of defeating President Nicolás Maduro, who is expected to run for another term. In the past, the opposition has boycotted presidential elections due to candidates being imprisoned or disqualified from running. However, they plan to participate in the upcoming election, even though the odds appear to be against them.
The opposition initially requested help from the National Electoral Council (CNE) to organize the primary in May 2022. However, their request went unanswered until September 2023, when the CNE, dominated by government loyalists, suggested delaying the primary to November. Faced with this delay, the opposition decided to organize the primary independently, establishing over 3,000 polling stations for voters.
The field of candidates has narrowed down to 10 after three participants dropped out, including Henrique Capriles, Freddy Superlano, and Roberto Enríquez. Polls indicate that the frontrunner in the primary is María Corina Machado, a former lawmaker with a significant lead. However, her eligibility to hold office is questionable as she was slapped with a 15-year ban in June by the comptroller-general, Elvis Amoroso, who now heads the CNE. Despite this, Machado remains confident that if she wins the primary, the pressure on the government will result in her reinstatement.
The primary elections are not without controversy as the recent agreement between opposition negotiators and government representatives in Barbados left the issue of barred candidates unclear. While the opposition negotiator claims the agreement allows barred candidates to run, the leader of the government delegation contradicted him. The United States responded to the agreement by easing some sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector and requiring the Venezuelan government to invite international observers for the 2024 elections.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed support for the agreement but warned that sanctions could be reinstated if the Maduro government fails to lift the bans on opposition presidential candidates by the end of November.
The primary elections and the selection of a unity candidate are crucial steps for the opposition in their attempt to challenge President Maduro’s hold on power. However, the future remains uncertain as the eligibility of the frontrunner and the government’s commitment to allowing fair elections remain in question. International observers will play a critical role in monitoring the upcoming presidential elections and ensuring a transparent and democratic process.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, global attention will turn to Venezuela, closely observing the opposition’s primary elections and the government’s response. The outcome of the primaries and the subsequent general election will shape the future of Venezuela and its political landscape. The opposition aims to demonstrate unity and resilience against an incumbent government, while the Maduro administration faces scrutiny over allegations of authoritarianism and electoral manipulation. The international community, particularly the United States, will monitor these developments closely and adjust their policies accordingly. If the primary elections proceed smoothly and a credible unity candidate emerges, it could bolster the opposition’s chances of securing a democratic transition and lead to potential changes in Venezuela’s economic policies, international relations, and human rights record.