Understanding the Impact of the Deadly Africa Heatwave on Climate Change

The recent deadly heatwave in West Africa and the Sahel region has raised concerns about the impact of human-induced climate change. Scientists have linked the extreme heat, which saw temperatures rise above 48C in Mali, to activities such as burning fossil fuels that made temperatures 1.4C hotter than normal.

The Gabriel Toure Hospital in Mali reported hundreds of deaths due to the high temperatures, with many victims being over 60 years old. Researchers from the World Weather Attribution group stated that without human contributions to climate change, such intense heatwaves would not have been possible. They found that global warming increased temperatures in Mali and Burkina Faso by up to 1.5C, with night temperatures rising by 2C above average.

Climate scientists warn that events like this heatwave could become more common as the planet warms. With global temperatures currently 1.2C higher than pre-industrial levels, such extreme weather occurrences are predicted to happen every 200 years. However, if temperatures exceed 2C, heatwaves of this magnitude could occur every 20 years. The researchers stressed that the additional 1.4 or 1.5C increase from climate change could mean the difference between life and death for many people.

While the heatwave in West Africa was attributed to climate change, a severe drought affecting southern Africa earlier this year was predominantly linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon. Countries such as Zambia and Zimbabwe faced water shortages, crop failures, and disease outbreaks, leaving approximately 20 million people at risk of hunger. Researchers emphasized that climate change did not significantly impact the low rainfall experienced in the region, pointing to El Niño as the primary cause.

El Niño, characterized by warm water upwelling in the Pacific, led to scarce rainfall across southern Africa, exacerbating the ongoing drought. Although a warmer world is expected to increase the frequency of droughts to once every ten years, El Niño events like the recent one have been found to double the likelihood of drought occurrences. Researchers believe that the current El Niño played a substantial role in the severe drought affecting southern Africa, driving weather patterns that resulted in widespread crop failures and water shortages.

As scientists continue to study the interactions between climate change and natural weather phenomena, it is evident that both factors contribute to extreme events like the heatwave in West Africa and the drought in southern Africa. The increasing frequency and intensity of such disasters underscore the urgent need for global climate action to mitigate the impacts of human-induced warming. Collaborative efforts are essential to combat climate change and protect vulnerable communities from the escalating risks of extreme weather events.