The American election cycle has taken a topsy-turvy turn, with Donald Trump defying gravity in the Republican primary polls despite facing multiple criminal charges. On the other hand, President Joe Biden, who presides over a strong economy, struggles to gain popularity and approval ratings. Despite the country’s positive economic performance, Biden’s approval ratings continue to decline. The main challenge lies in the fact that many of Biden’s major spending programs are still in the approvals phase, leaving him without tangible achievements to showcase. However, Biden’s administration hopes that as the money gets dispersed into various projects nationwide, the positive effects will become more apparent, leading to an increase in public support and recognition for his efforts.
Yet, this strategy carries its own risks. If inflation rates rise again, or a recession resurfaces, Republicans will seize the opportunity to launch negative campaign ads, labeling Biden’s “Bidenomics” plan as a failure. The lack of immediate tangible results makes it easier for critics to undermine his economic agenda.
On the other hand, Donald Trump seems to face the opposite situation, where bad news does not harm his popularity. Even when faced with legal troubles, Trump’s supporters remain loyal. In fact, some strategists in Trump’s campaign believe that his legal problems could even be turned into a positive campaign narrative. They argue that voters in key areas, such as the suburbs of Philadelphia and Milwaukee, would be so aghast at the idea of a former president being incarcerated that they would vote to re-elect Trump, hoping that he could extricate himself from legal jeopardy.
However, it is still too early to determine whether this perspective will resonate with voters in November 2024. Recent polls suggest that a majority of Americans believe Trump has committed a crime, and most of them claim they will not vote for him. There is also the risk that continued legal pressure and familial pressure may eventually force Trump to drop out of the campaign.
Despite these uncertainties, one thing is clear – this campaign season will be far from ordinary. Trump’s remarkable support despite his legal challenges and Biden’s struggle to garner public recognition for his economic achievements continue to shape the political landscape. Both candidates are in unconventional positions, and their fortunes can change rapidly depending on how events unfold in the coming months.
