The recent mass attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels against vessels in the Red Sea has raised concerns about the growing threat they pose to international shipping and global trade. This attack, which was their largest so far, demonstrated two important points. Firstly, the Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran and control the Red Sea coastline, are not backing down despite international pressure. Secondly, they possess a powerful arsenal of missiles and drones that they are not afraid to use against Western warships.
The attack on 9 January involved 21 drones and missiles, all of which were successfully intercepted and shot down by US Navy fighter jets and missiles launched from US and British warships. However, the cost of this defense is exorbitant. Houthi explosive drones cost nearly £16,000 each, while the Sea Viper missiles used by British warships cost over £1 million each. Additionally, maintaining the multinational US-led flotilla of warships under Operation Prosperity Guardian incurs significant fuel and logistical expenses. Combatting medium and low-cost missiles and drones with high-end interceptor missiles is not financially sustainable in the long term.
Furthermore, the risks associated with these attacks are mounting. Older US Navy officers still remember the humiliation of the al-Qaeda attack on the USS Cole in 2000, where a simple speedboat packed with explosives devastated the warship and claimed the lives of 17 US sailors. While close-range defenses have improved since then, Western warships remain vulnerable. The Houthi rebels have adopted a doctrine of “swarm attacks,” seeking to overwhelm enemy air defenses by launching numerous drones or missiles simultaneously—a tactic that has proven partially successful in the Russian conflict in Ukraine.
A new report by the Whitehall think tank Rusi highlights the sophisticated weaponry available to the Houthi rebels. This includes the Asef Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) with a range of 400 km, carrying a 500kg warhead and employing an electro-optical seeker to home in on its target. Another weapon in their arsenal is the Al-Mandeb 2, an anti-ship cruise missile similar to the one used by Hezbollah in 2006 against the Israeli ship Hanit. The Houthis are reportedly receiving intelligence about shipping movements from an Iranian surveillance ship, the MV Behshad, operating in the lower Red Sea near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical route for about 15% of global trade.
The recent Houthi attacks have forced shipping companies to reroute their vessels around the western coast of Africa, resulting in lengthier journeys, increased fuel consumption, and higher costs. Given the impact on global trade and the condemnation of Houthi attacks, one may wonder why the US and its allies have not taken decisive actions to stop them. The answer lies in the complex dynamics at play.
The Houthi rebels have professed their support for Hamas in the Gaza war, claiming to target only shipping involving Israeli ports or with Israeli ownership links. This stance resonates well with their own population and the wider Middle East, where there is a common perception that the US supports Israel’s war machine and blocks ceasefire efforts in Gaza. Arab populations are increasingly critical of their own governments’ failure to prevent the Gaza slaughter. Therefore, while Arab governments may dislike the Houthis and their Iranian allies, they are reluctant to engage in military action against them due to the potential for triggering popular unrest and being seen as siding with Israel in a US-Israeli attack on the Arab nation.
The situation is particularly delicate for Saudi Arabia, as they have been trying to extricate themselves from a disastrous civil war in Yemen that began with air strikes against the Houthis in 2015. Despite their efforts, the Houthis have retaliated with missile and drone strikes targeting Saudi airports, cities, and petrochemical facilities. The Saudis are conscious of the Houthi rebels’ popularity among segments of their own population, especially as news reports of casualties and grief in Gaza intensify. Being perceived as siding with the US in the Red Sea would risk aligning themselves with Israel, which is politically sensitive for Saudi Arabia.
Given these complex dynamics, the US, the West, and other participating nations in the multinational operation to protect shipping in the Red Sea would prefer if the Houthi rebels chose to back down. However, there is no indication that this will happen, and limited military action against Houthi facilities may become inevitable. The US and the UK have hinted at potential action following the largest Red Sea attack, as concerns grow about the implications for global trade and the need to ensure the safety of vital shipping routes.
