The recent attacks by Hamas on Israel in October has sparked speculation about the possibility of another uprising in the West Bank. The Israeli army has been conducting frequent raids in the region, and the pressure on Palestinians has increased. The war in Gaza has further intensified these pressures, with Israeli raids becoming more forceful, economic hardships increasing, and support for Hamas rising. However, despite the rising support for armed resistance and dissatisfaction with the Palestinian Authority, calls for an uprising by Hamas have not translated into action on the ground.
According to a poll conducted by the Centre for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, support for Hamas in the West Bank has more than tripled, while support for the ruling party Fatah has significantly dropped. The majority of respondents also expressed their belief that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should resign. However, the support for armed resistance has not resulted in large-scale demonstrations or confrontations with Israeli soldiers like during the previous uprisings.
One of the main reasons for the hesitation to participate in demonstrations called for by Hamas is the fear of the Israeli response. Many Palestinians are aware of the security risks involved and fear being targeted for arrest or assassination by the Israeli forces. The Israeli army has been conducting increasingly harsh actions in the West Bank, resulting in numerous casualties. More than 270 people have been killed by Israeli forces, including 70 children, since the Hamas attacks in October. On the other hand, four Israelis, including three from the armed forces, have been killed by Palestinians. The Palestinian security services also cooperate with Israel to arrest members of armed groups, which has been widely criticized by Palestinians.
The current leader of Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, is attempting to avoid an escalation in violence against Israel and has cooperated with the Israeli government. This approach differs significantly from his predecessor, Yasser Arafat. However, the grassroots of Fatah may not remain silent forever. The daily violations and assassinations could eventually lead to an explosion of violence. The situation is further complicated by the possibility of a unified Palestinian leadership governing Gaza after the war ends. This prospect clashes with the opposition of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The West Bank’s main political movement, Fatah, remains critical for the occurrence of another uprising. As of now, Fatah and the security services are not directly involved in preparations for an intifada, making it highly unlikely to see one emerging in the near future. However, there are indications that Fatah and the security services may be moving towards a turning point. As frustrations with Palestinian politics and the lack of progress on the political agenda grow, there is a possibility of an explosion of violence if there is no substantial change in the approach of the Israeli government.
In conclusion, the growing support for Hamas in the West Bank and the dissatisfaction with the Palestinian Authority raise concerns about the possibility of another uprising. However, the fear of the Israeli response and the lack of mobilization by Hamas in the West Bank have prevented the support for armed resistance from translating into large-scale demonstrations and confrontations. The current leader of Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, is attempting to maintain calm, but the grassroots of the party may not remain silent forever. The situation depends partly on the outcome of the war in Gaza and the prospects of a unified Palestinian leadership. Without significant changes in the political landscape, a sustained uprising in the West Bank remains unlikely but not impossible.
