The escalating conflict in Myanmar has resulted in the displacement of millions of people, causing deep concern for the United Nations and Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The UN reports that the number of displaced individuals has reached two million, highlighting the urgent need to protect non-combatants and facilitate humanitarian aid access. The successful alliance of three ethnic armed groups in Shan State has emboldened opposition forces across Myanmar, leading to increased attacks and territorial gains against the ruling junta.
In Kayah State, south of Shan State along the border with Thailand, ethnic Karenni insurgents are intensifying their attacks on the main town of Loikaw. They have already captured the university on the outskirts, demonstrating their growing control over the state. Furthermore, volunteer people’s defence forces (PDFs), formed by local activists after the 2021 peaceful protests were suppressed, have launched their own attacks to capitalize on the military’s setbacks in Shan State and maintain pressure on the ruling junta. Despite their limited experience and armament, PDFs often collaborate with more experienced ethnic soldiers who have been fighting against the central government for decades.
The PDFs have shown significant activity in Sagaing, where they have recently taken the town of Kawlin and are now targeting the strategically important town of Tigyaing on the Irrawaddy River. Additionally, the Myanmar junta has lost control of a substantial portion of the border with India, as ethnic Chin insurgents dominate their own state and recently captured the border town of Rikhawdar. The Arakan Army, one of the well-armed ethnic insurgent groups, has ended its ceasefire and begun attacking army and police posts in the south. The Karen National Union in south-eastern Myanmar is also escalating its operations against military positions along the vital trade route to the Thai border. Even the southernmost state of Tanintharyi is witnessing regular attacks on the army.
Despite the military’s advantages in terms of weaponry, including Russian and Chinese-made aircraft, helicopters, and heavy weapons, the expanded scale of armed resistance has stretched Myanmar’s military rulers thin. The air force, for instance, lacks the necessary capacity to effectively respond to the areas it has lost due to insufficient transport helicopters and difficulties in moving troops. Additionally, reports indicate low morale and recruitment challenges within the army, with entire units choosing to surrender or flee in recent battles. The military’s inability to mount a counter-attack in Shan State after three weeks suggests a lack of capacity or a failure to grasp the severity of the challenge.
While it is unlikely that the military regime, which seized power nearly three years ago, will collapse, the sustained pressure from the opposition and improved coordination may compel certain elements within the junta to consider negotiations with their adversaries. Currently, coup-leader Min Ang Hlaing has refused to entertain such discussions. However, the ongoing displacement crisis and the growing armed resistance indicate a pressing need for diplomatic resolution and political engagement.
In light of these developments, it is crucial to emphasize the importance of protecting civilians caught in the crossfire and ensuring unimpeded access for humanitarian organizations. Efforts must be made to mitigate the impact on the millions of displaced individuals who are facing severe humanitarian challenges, including lack of shelter, food, and healthcare. International actors, including the United Nations, should continue to exert diplomatic pressure on Myanmar’s military leaders to drive meaningful negotiations and seek peaceful solutions.
Additionally, regional actors such as neighboring countries and international organizations should collaborate to address the escalating conflict and provide support for the affected populations. This includes facilitating the provision of humanitarian aid, ensuring the safety and security of displaced communities, and promoting dialogue between the various stakeholders involved.
It is essential to recognize and address the significant human rights concerns associated with the conflict, as well as the potential for further human rights abuses and atrocities committed by both sides. The international community should closely monitor the situation, document any violations, and hold accountable those responsible for human rights violations and crimes against humanity.
In conclusion, the escalating conflict in Myanmar and the resulting displacement of millions demand urgent attention and concerted efforts from the international community. By prioritizing the protection of non-combatants, advocating for diplomatic solutions, ensuring humanitarian access, and addressing human rights concerns, we can strive towards a more stable and peaceful Myanmar.
