The military government in Myanmar has suffered a significant setback as ethnic insurgent armies in Shan State, supported by other armed groups opposing the government, have seized control of much of the border with China. This co-ordinated attack is the most serious blow to the junta since it came to power in February 2021. The insurgents have overrun military posts, captured border crossings, and disrupted the overland trade route with China. While the government has responded with airstrikes and bombardments, it has been unable to regain the lost territory or bring in reinforcements.
This attack marks a turning point in the conflict as it is the first time that the well-armed insurgents in Shan State have aligned themselves with the wider campaign to overthrow the junta and restore democratic rule. However, it is important to note that the insurgent groups also have their own territorial and economic motives. They have long-held ambitions to expand the areas they control and have targeted scam centers proliferating in Shan State. These centers employ Chinese and other foreign nationals under exploitative conditions, and their closure is one of the insurgents’ aims.
China’s restrained response to the attack is notable. Normally, China acts as a restraining influence on the armed groups along its border with Myanmar. However, its frustration over the military government’s inaction regarding the scam centers in Shan State may have contributed to its hands-off approach. China has been pressuring the junta to shut down these centers, which have become a source of embarrassment due to the brutal treatment of victims. While China has publicly called for a ceasefire, it has not directly intervened to halt the fighting.
The success of the ethnic insurgents has emboldened the National Unity Government (NUG), the administration that was deposed by the coup, and its volunteer fighters. The NUG has applauded the alliance’s progress and sees it as a significant momentum in their struggle to overthrow the military government. Pro-NUG People’s Defense Forces have also launched their own attacks to take advantage of the military’s apparent weakness.
The timing of the attack coincided with an incident in Laukkaing that strained China’s patience with the junta. Chinese pressure to shut down the scam centers resulted in clashes between guards and those trying to escape, prompting a strong protest letter from the adjacent Chinese province. The Brotherhood Alliance, taking advantage of the situation, attacked Laukkaing, promising to close the scam centers to appease China.
While the immediate goal of the ethnic insurgent groups is to overthrow the military government, their longer-term objective is to gain as much territory as possible. They believe that a collapse of the junta would put them in a strong position for future negotiations on a new federal structure for Myanmar. Each group has its specific territorial and autonomy aspirations, which may conflict with the interests of other ethnic groups in Shan State.
The changing dynamics in Myanmar and the success of the ethnic insurgents signal a potential shift in the balance of power in the region. The junta’s weakened position highlights the urgent need for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing crisis. The international community should closely monitor the evolving situation, provide humanitarian assistance to those affected by the conflict, and support efforts towards a democratic future for Myanmar.
