2023 has been a challenging year for the West, with setbacks on the international political stage. These setbacks indicate a shift in the balance of power away from the US-dominated, Western values that have prevailed for years. While the situation is disappointing for Ukraine, it also has significant implications for the West. This article explores the various factors contributing to the changing balance of power and highlights the potential impacts for the West.
One of the major setbacks for the West has been the war on Europe’s eastern borders, particularly Ukraine. The war has not gone well for Ukraine, Nato, and the EU, which have provided significant support in terms of funding and military aid. Despite hopes that increased military support from Western countries could turn the tide, Ukraine’s counter-offensive has failed. The country is running critically short of ammunition and soldiers, while Congress is delaying a $50 billion military support package. The West’s response has not been sufficient to counter Russia’s extensive lines of defensive fortifications.
The impact on Ukraine is significant, but it also matters to the West. Holding on to the territory it has seized would allow President Putin to proclaim victory, despite the efforts of Nato to support Ukraine. This situation raises concerns among the Baltic states, Nato members themselves, who fear that they may be next on Russia’s list. Moreover, President Putin has managed to maintain his international standing, despite being indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes against Ukrainian children. He has received warm welcomes in various countries and has solidified his power through alliances and resilient economic practices.
The West’s involvement in the Israel-Hamas war has diverted global attention from the situation in Ukraine, further impacting the balance of power. Many Muslims and others around the world now view the US and UK as complicit in the destruction of Gaza due to their support for Israel. This perception has boosted Russia’s image in the Middle East and has led to an escalation of conflicts in the Southern Red Sea. Iran, suspected of developing a nuclear weapon, has extended its military influence across multiple countries, forging closer ties with Moscow.
The West’s grip on the Sahel region of West Africa has also weakened, with several countries experiencing military coups that led to the expulsion of European forces. These countries have turned towards Russian mercenaries, such as the Wagner Group, for support. South Africa, previously seen as a Western ally, has engaged in joint naval exercises with Russia and China, signaling a shift in alliances.
Despite these challenges, there are glimmers of hope for the West. The Nato alliance has reestablished its defensive purpose through its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Western unity in supporting Ukraine has surprised many, although some cracks are beginning to appear. The Middle East also presents an opportunity for improvement, particularly in addressing the long-standing issue of a future Palestinian state. The recent events in Gaza have reignited the quest for a just and durable solution, garnering global attention.
Overall, the changing balance of power and the setbacks faced by the West in 2023 have significant implications. The West must navigate various challenges, including Russian aggression, international perceptions, and shifting alliances. However, by reinvigorating alliances like Nato and addressing long-standing conflicts in the Middle East, there is potential for the West to regain stability and influence in the international political arena.
