The conflict in Ukraine between Russian forces and Ukrainian troops has been ongoing for two years, with Russia’s recent advances marking a significant shift in the front lines. Avdiivka, a key eastern town besieged by Russian forces for months, has fallen to Russian troops, causing Ukraine to withdraw its forces and resupply capabilities from the nearby coke factory. This loss is seen as a major breakthrough for Russian forces, giving them an advantage in the region. The fall of Avdiivka is considered the most significant change in the over 1,000km-long front line since Russian troops seized the town of Bakhmut in May 2023. Bakhmut remains a key flashpoint in the conflict, along with other areas such as Robotyne and Krynky further south.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia has hailed the capture of Avdiivka as an “important victory,” while Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky attributes the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops to save soldiers’ lives, citing issues with faltering Western weapons supplies. Ukraine heavily relies on weapons support from the US and other Western allies to combat Russia, which has a significantly larger military force with ample artillery ammunition. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russian forces have also made progress in areas such as Bakhmut, Robotyne, and Krynky, pushing towards the land corridor to Crimea.
Recent assessments suggest that Russian forces have made advances in several key areas, including retaking territory along the Dnipro river near Krynky, disrupting the balance of power in the region. Despite Ukrainian claims of successfully repelling Russian attacks, geolocated footage indicates Russian advancements in various parts of the conflict zone. Russia has also reported to have retaken Krynky, while Ukrainian forces maintain a limited foothold in the area according to open-source visual evidence.
Ukraine’s strategic attacks on Russia include recent incidents such as the apparent sinking of the amphibious ship, Caesar Kunikov, by Ukrainian drones near Crimea. The UK Ministry of Defence reports a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which have deterred Russian operations in the Black Sea. Russian casualties include downed aircraft such as an Su-34 and an Su-35S in eastern Ukraine, signaling ongoing resistance from Ukrainian forces against the Russian invasion.
The conflict in Ukraine has been characterized by fierce fighting, logistical challenges for Russian forces, and strong resistance from Ukrainian troops. The use of Western-supplied arms, such as the Nlaw anti-tank system, has proven effective against Russian advances, leading to shifts in control of key areas in the conflict zone. The situation in Ukraine remains fluid, with continuous updates from sources like the Institute for the Study of War and the UK Ministry of Defence to track developments in the region.
