In a pivotal vote, opposition parties in Poland have achieved enough votes to potentially overthrow the ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, according to almost complete results. With over 99% of the votes counted, PiS is leading with 35.64% of the votes, while Donald Tusk’s liberal Civic Coalition party has secured 30.48%. However, Tusk is now likely to be able to form a broad coalition, putting an end to PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s eight-year rule.
The final result will be announced by the National Electoral Commission on Tuesday. Although the winning party usually has the opportunity to form a government, Kaczynski’s PiS party falls far short of the 231 seats required to form a majority parliament, the Sejm. In a final exit poll, a coalition with the far-right Confederation would leave the socially conservative PiS party 20 seats below the required number.
Donald Tusk expressed, “This is the end of the bad times, this is the end of the PiS government,” during a celebration on Sunday night. The opposition had previously alerted Poles that this election was their “last chance” to save democracy. The National Election Commission reported a turnout of 74%, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989. Tusk, 66, addressed a large crowd of jubilant supporters in Warsaw, declaring, “Poland won, democracy has won.”
Tusk’s Civic Coalition intends to form a government with the center-right Third Way party, which received approximately 14.4% of the votes, and the New Left, which secured around 8.5%. Together, they would easily achieve a majority, with the final exit poll indicating they would secure 249 seats in the 460-seat parliament. The stock market in Poland experienced a surge of over 6%, and the Zloty, the national currency, also rose as a result of the anticipation of a new government.
On Monday, international observers stated that parties had been able to campaign freely leading up to the election day. However, PiS had an advantage due to biased state media coverage and the misuse of public funds. State TV provided full coverage of Mr. Kaczynski’s address to supporters, but allocated minimal airtime to his main rival. Despite polls closing at 21:00 local time on Sunday, voters queued well into the night in Warsaw, Krakow, and into the early hours in Wroclaw. Pollster Ipsos reported that the proportion of 18-29-year-old voters was greater than those over 60.
Law and Justice came into power in 2015, prioritizing Catholic family values, raising the minimum wage, and increasing support for children and pensioners. The party also implemented a near-total ban on abortion in 2021 and has faced criticism for politicizing the judiciary by appointing judges sympathetic to the ruling party in top courts. Tusk has promised to improve relations with EU and unlock €36bn ( £30bn) of EU Covid pandemic recovery funds that were frozen due to disagreements over the PiS judicial reforms. His coalition has also committed to liberalizing abortion laws.
Poland has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion last year and has taken in one million refugees. Although PiS leaders have shown signs of wavering in recent weeks, it is considered an attempt to appeal to far-right voters. The next government is expected to continue Poland’s support for Ukraine. It is anticipated that Poland may not have a new government until December, as President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, stated that the winning party would be given the first opportunity to form a coalition as per Polish tradition. If the candidate chosen by the president fails to win a vote of confidence in parliament, the Sejm will appoint another candidate to attempt to form a coalition and pass a confidence vote. Talks between Tusk and his allies could begin as early as this week, but they may have to wait several weeks for the opportunity to form a coalition.