The recent vote by Republicans in the House of Representatives to authorize the impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden has set in motion a potentially significant turn of events. While it is uncertain whether the impeachment will ultimately lead to Biden’s removal from office, its impact on the electoral landscape cannot be ignored.
In the short-term, the House’s action grants more power to the investigating committees, enabling them to subpoena documents and testimony, with the potential for judges to enforce these requests. This means that the Biden White House, which previously cited the lack of a formal vote as grounds for withholding information, may now be compelled to comply. The vote also signifies that House Republicans, despite their narrow majority, are increasingly aligned on moving the impeachment process forward.
For centrist Republicans in districts won by Biden in 2020, the decision to initiate the investigation poses a political risk. They may choose to see it through to the end to avoid appearing indecisive or inconsistent. However, the process does not end in the House but moves to the Democratic-controlled Senate, where a two-thirds majority is required to convict and remove a president. Historically, this threshold has never been met. Some Republicans have expressed concerns that the impeachment process is losing its significance, becoming a tool for partisan disputes rather than a remedy for serious offenses.
Nevertheless, the impeachment inquiry presents a significant election-year challenge for Biden. Republicans have long viewed his son, Hunter Biden, as a potential liability. If they can establish a connection between Hunter’s business dealings and his father, it could damage Biden’s reputation among American voters. A formal impeachment investigation, complete with public hearings, a House vote, and a Senate trial, has the potential to generate significant negative publicity for Biden as he campaigns for re-election in November 2024.
However, it is worth noting that thus far, no direct evidence linking Biden to his son’s alleged wrongdoings has been presented. The impeachment inquiry may lead to unexpected developments, as seen in previous investigations such as Bill Clinton’s impeachment for lying about an affair, which began with a probe into a real estate deal, or Hillary Clinton’s email server saga, which stemmed from an inquiry into a US ambassador’s death in Libya. Sometimes, these investigations yield surprising results.
Even if no incriminating evidence is uncovered, the mere perception of corruption associated with the Biden name could be damaging enough. Republicans could also leverage the impeachment proceedings alongside Hunter Biden’s legal battles to divert attention from their own presidential nominee, Donald Trump, who may potentially face a federal trial in March 2024 for alleged illegal attempts to overturn the 2020 election. This strategic timing of the impeachment process could serve as counter-programming to overshadow Trump’s legal troubles.
Furthermore, in an already disillusioned political climate, the impeachment inquiry and its subsequent impact on the electoral landscape could contribute to growing toxicity. Public trust in elected officials is already low, and the upcoming year could further erode confidence in the political system.
While the outcome of this impeachment inquiry remains uncertain, it is clear that it has the potential to shape the political landscape leading up to the 2024 presidential election. Both Republicans and Democrats will navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by this process, and the nation will be closely watching the twists and turns that lie ahead.
