The recent withdrawal of French troops from Niger following a coup has significant implications for regional stability in West Africa. The move has strained relations between France and Niger, with the former colonial power being blamed for various problems and crises in the region. Meanwhile, the United States retains a significant presence in Niger, raising questions about the differing approaches of these two global powers. This article explores the impact of France’s withdrawal and highlights the potential consequences for the region.
The coup in Niger took place less than five months ago, resulting in the ousting of President Mohamed Bazoum. France had deployed troops in the country to combat militant Islamists threatening stability in the region. However, relations between Paris and Niger have deteriorated since the coup, with the French ambassador leaving the country at the military junta’s insistence. The European Union (EU), which had been involved in training Niger’s security forces, has also been snubbed by the junta.
One of the key implications of France’s withdrawal is the loss of military support for Niger. President Bazoum had viewed France as a crucial military partner and had requested French troops to redeploy to Niger’s border areas to combat jihadist attacks. However, following French President Emmanuel Macron’s condemnation of the coup, Niger’s new military rulers demanded the withdrawal of French troops. As a result, most of the 1,500 troops have already left, with the remaining few set to depart soon.
Niger’s junta has opted to rely on a defense alliance with neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali. However, both countries are under military rule and have resisted calls for a swift return to civilian-led democracy. The withdrawal of French troops raises concerns about the ability of these regional forces to effectively combat jihadist groups and maintain stability in the region. The loss of high-tech intelligence and air support previously provided by France and the United States further weakens the region’s military capabilities.
While France and the EU face criticism and resentment from the junta, the United States has maintained a significant presence in Niger. The US has not faced demands for troop withdrawal or the shutdown of military bases in the country. This highlights the differing approaches of France and the US towards the Junta and raises questions about the reasons behind the US’s sustained engagement with military regimes. The US has also expressed its intention to resume collaboration and development support for Niger, signaling its willingness to engage with the junta.
France’s withdrawal and the contrasting US presence in Niger reflect broader dynamics in West Africa. President Macron’s prioritization of the region, whether through military efforts, cultural restitution, or development initiatives, has garnered widespread resentment among young urban populations. This resentment has fueled the popularity of military regimes that play the anti-French card to boost their support. France and the EU have faced consequences for their strong support of the regional bloc Ecowas and its efforts to pressure the coup leaders into restoring civilian-led democracy. Ecowas itself is also unpopular, seen as a presidents’ club that turns a blind eye to election rigging and constitutional manipulations.
In this complex and polarized context, the US has taken a softer-toned approach, avoiding disavowal of its core policies and maintaining diplomatic engagement with the military regimes. US officials have urged the junta to open talks with Ecowas and have offered incentives for the restoration of democracy. The US’s relatively favorable image in West Africa, free from a colonial history and conflict legacy, has allowed it to sustain engagement even with military rulers.
However, the US still faces challenges in this competitive diplomatic environment. Russia’s overtures, including visits from its deputy Defense Minister, highlight the potential for alternative alliances and partners in the region. Niger’s military rulers have signaled their openness to other suitors if the US does not meet their expectations. This adds complexity to the US’s diplomatic choices and requires careful navigation in a region where Western influence is not the sole option.
Beyond the diplomatic dynamics, Niger’s military rulers also face humanitarian and security challenges. The suspension of development aid and Ecowas trade sanctions have worsened living conditions for many households and jeopardized long-term development programs. The redeployment of army units to Niamey has resulted in an upsurge in jihadist attacks and inter-communal violence in other parts of the country. The new alliance with Burkina Faso and Mali may improve cross-border military cooperation, but lacks the high-tech capabilities provided by France and the US.
In conclusion, France’s withdrawal of troops from Niger following the coup has significant implications for regional stability in West Africa. The strained relations between France and Niger, as well as the differing approaches of France and the US, raise questions about the future of military presence and engagement in the region. The loss of French military support weakens the region’s capabilities to combat jihadist groups, while the US’s sustained engagement reflects a need for careful diplomacy in a competitive environment. Niger’s military rulers also face humanitarian and security challenges, with living conditions worsening and violence escalating in the absence of development aid and strong military capabilities. The consequences of France’s withdrawal and the subsequent diplomatic dynamics will shape the future of the region.
