Ethiopia has recently signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, marking the first legal step towards gaining sea access. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has emphasized the importance of sea access for Ethiopia, referring to it as an existential issue for the landlocked country. The agreement with Somaliland has raised concerns and tensions across the Horn of Africa, with fears of territorial disputes and implications on Ethiopia’s relationship with neighboring Eritrea. Although the details of the agreement have not been made public, the statement from Prime Minister Abiy’s office suggests that it will pave the way for realizing Ethiopia’s aspiration to secure access to the sea.
The focus of the negotiations leading up to the MoU has been on the port of Berbera in Somaliland. Redwan Hussien, Ethiopia’s national security adviser, has also hinted at the possibility of accessing a leased military base on the Red Sea through this arrangement. While a MoU is not legally binding, it can serve as a precursor to a treaty that imposes obligations on the signing parties. The signing of this agreement with Somaliland is being hailed as a significant diplomatic victory by Addis Ababa.
President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland stated during the signing ceremony that a section of the agreement acknowledges Ethiopia’s future recognition of Somaliland as an independent country. Somaliland seceded from Somalia over three decades ago but has not been recognized as an independent state by the African Union (AU) or the United Nations (UN). The response from Somalia regarding this announcement remains unknown, but it is expected that the issue will be discussed in an emergency cabinet meeting.
Ethiopia’s loss of sea access occurred when Eritrea gained independence in the early 1990s. As the most populous landlocked country in the world, Ethiopia has heavily relied on the port in neighboring Djibouti for its imports and exports. In 2018, a deal was signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland that would have given Addis Ababa a 19% stake in the port of Berbera, with DP World, a logistics company from the United Arab Emirates, holding a majority share. However, this deal fell through in 2022 as Ethiopia failed to meet the necessary conditions before the deadline.
The potential sea access provided by the agreement with Somaliland will be a game-changer for Ethiopia’s trade and economic growth. It opens up new opportunities for diversifying import and export routes, reducing dependency on a single port, and potentially lowering transportation costs. However, it is critical for all parties involved to handle the situation with caution and diplomacy. The unresolved territorial dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as well as the lack of recognition for Somaliland as an independent state, can complicate the implementation of this agreement.
This MoU sets the stage for further negotiations and potentially a comprehensive treaty between Ethiopia and Somaliland. It will require careful navigation of political sensitivities, territorial claims, and regional dynamics. International actors, such as the AU and the UN, may become involved in the process to ensure a peaceful resolution. The successful implementation of this agreement has the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa, providing Ethiopia with the much-needed sea access and opening up opportunities for regional cooperation and economic integration.
