China’s escalating pressure on Taiwan ahead of the upcoming presidential election is causing concern among both Taiwanese citizens and international observers. The Chinese government has long perceived Taiwan as a renegade province and is now making its presence felt, not only at the ballot box, but also through intensified military activity near Taiwan’s borders.
Volunteers, many of them veterans like Hsu Keng-Jui, have formed a network to monitor and track the constant presence of Chinese ships and aircraft just outside Taiwan’s territorial waters. They listen to military channels and hear the Chinese navy asserting its legitimacy over Taiwan and claiming it as an inseparable part of China. While some Taiwanese remain unmoved by these messages, tensions are rising as China continues to cross the median line that divides the strait between the two territories.
This provocative action, known as “grey zone warfare,” is aimed at subduing the enemy without direct conflict. China wants to undermine support for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and its candidate for vice-president, William Lai. Lai is viewed by China as a hardline advocate for formal Taiwan independence, and Beijing is using this election to send a strong message to the United States and Japan, warning against any interference in Taiwan’s affairs.
Despite the threats, DPP supporters remain defiant. They have gathered in large numbers to show their support, not only for Lai but also for President Tsai Ing-wen, who has defended Taiwan’s sovereignty and made significant strides in areas such as legalizing same-sex marriage. These supporters see Taiwan as a distinct entity from China and are determined to protect their country.
However, China’s pressure on Taiwan goes beyond the election. Rising costs, unaffordable housing, and limited opportunities have fueled dissatisfaction among Taiwanese citizens, which has led to a surge in support for populist candidate Ko Wen-je and the Taiwan People’s Party. Ko positions himself as a middle-of-the-road option, capable of brokering better ties with Beijing while maintaining Taiwan’s distinct identity.
The issue of how Taiwan should prepare to counter China’s military threat divides the island’s main parties. The DPP government has invested heavily in its military capabilities, acquiring new submarines, fighter jets, and missiles from the United States. It has also reinstated compulsory military service. In contrast, the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) party takes a more ambivalent stance, emphasizing the need for dialogue and peace with Beijing.
Taiwan’s air force is being gradually exhausted by China’s constant pressure. The wear and tear on its aging fleet of Mirage 2000 fighter jets has reached a point where they can no longer scramble to intercept all but the most threatening Chinese intrusions. Taiwan’s defense capabilities pale in comparison to China’s, with only a fraction of the fighter jets available to its counterpart.
As the election approaches, China’s propaganda machine is also targeting Taiwanese voters. Older citizens with family ties to mainland China have been a primary focus, with efforts to sway their support away from the DPP. China aims to generate distrust towards those advocating for Taiwan’s independence, presenting them as the ones who could trigger a war.
Beijing is also making a concerted effort to win over young voters who are dissatisfied with the traditional parties. Social media platforms like TikTok and YouTube are being exploited to disseminate pro-China messaging. China’s strategy is focused on long-term goals, with the ultimate aim of convincing Taiwan to sign a peace agreement without the need for military confrontation.
The upcoming election will be crucial for Taiwan’s future, with the DPP aiming for an unprecedented third consecutive term. However, there is a real possibility that the KMT could win a significant portion of the vote. China’s influence and propaganda continue to be key factors in shaping Taiwanese sentiment, particularly among older voters and disenchanted youth.
Despite the challenges and pressure from China, Taiwan remains resolute in its determination to preserve its sovereignty and protect its democratic values. The international community must closely monitor the situation and support Taiwan’s right to self-determination, ensuring that any attempts to undermine its autonomy are met with steadfast resistance.
