The Impact of Russia’s Potential Seizure of Kupiansk on the Frontline

In the war-torn city of Kupiansk, Christmas is a mere facade of celebration. With most children evacuated and a dwindling population, the city remains on the brink of constant danger. The ever-present tension is palpable as the front line looms nearby. Over the course of just one hour, sirens blare and artillery fire pierces the air. This city, once occupied and then liberated, now faces the ominous threat of Russian forces pushing back. The fear and uncertainty of death permeate the lives of its residents, as they navigate the treacherous reality of their daily routines.

Amidst the desolation and apprehension, Svitlana, a kiosk worker at the local market, voices the collective sentiment of the community. She describes the perpetual state of living on the edge, never knowing if they will be struck by Russian rockets or make it home alive. The strain is most acutely felt in Kupiansk, where suspicion lingers and residents cautiously document their surroundings with mobile phones. The somber echoes of blasts reverberate, further reinforcing the constant unease.

As one ventures away from the market, the pressures momentarily ease, but the emptiness of the streets speaks volumes. The elderly navigate the pavements, while a chance encounter with Sofia, a 17-year-old who has grown up amidst Russian aggression, provides a glimpse into the hardened resilience that war has instilled within her. Sofia recounts the widespread deaths that accompanied the full-scale invasion and remarks on the strength she has acquired in the face of such adversity. Her family home in nearby Izium lay in ruins, prompting their relocation to Kupiansk. Her friends, like numerous others, were forced to abandon the city long ago. Sofia, though outwardly fearless, expresses her frustration with the skepticism of Western politicians who determine her country’s fate. She boldly challenges them to witness the reality in Kupiansk firsthand, convinced that it would quell any doubts regarding the need for aid.

Kupiansk, similar to Avdiivka, stands as an eastern city defended by Ukrainian forces from an elevated position atop a hill. Across the Oskil River, plumes of smoke signal the ongoing struggle to contain Russian advances. Although the Russian forces remain approximately 8km away, concerns loom that they will reclaim the eastern bank of the Oskil, rendering Ukraine’s aspiration of fully liberating its territory an increasingly distant dream. Ukrainian troops valiantly repel waves of Russian attacks, whilst constantly vigilant of Russian drones surveilling from above. The inherent danger of large gatherings magnifies these soldiers’ challenge, as they seek solace in the intimate confines of a barn for a fleeting Christmas prayer.

Oleksiy, a soldier from the 14th separate mechanized brigade, provides insight into the relentless defensive efforts endured by Ukrainian troops. He emphasizes the ceaseless nature of their duty, with battles raging day and night, without respite. While Oleksiy and his fellow soldiers bear the brunt of conflict, senior US politicians luxuriate in their Christmas breaks, having failed to reach an agreement on a military support package worth nearly £50bn for Kyiv. Oleksiy underscores the urgent need for increased resources, as the Russians display a ruthlessness that spares neither human lives nor machinery.

Kyiv warns that the fall of Kupiansk may only serve as a gateway for Russia’s further incursions, with the ultimate objective of claiming the entirety of Ukraine. Yet, the narrative of a Ukrainian victory becomes increasingly challenging to sell amidst the prevailing winds of battle in Kupiansk. The gravity of the situation necessitates urgent attention and action, as the lives of innocent civilians hang in the balance.