The recent election in Poland has caused a seismic shift in the country’s political landscape. According to the second exit poll, the right-wing populist Law and Justice party has won the most votes, but will lose its majority in parliament. This outcome raises several questions about what happens next and the potential impact it will have on Poland.
If the official result confirms the second exit poll prediction, President Andrezj Duda, a former Law and Justice MP, will be responsible for appointing a new prime minister to form a government. Normally, the president chooses the leader of the largest single party, in this case Law and Justice, to have the first opportunity to form a government and secure a vote of confidence in parliament. However, Law and Justice appears to have no clear path to forming a majority government, while a coalition of opposition parties does seem capable of doing so.
According to the second exit poll, Law and Justice would win 198 seats in parliament, falling short of the 231 seats needed for a majority. Even with the support of the far-right Confederation party, they would only muster 212 seats. On the other hand, the opposition coalition could count on 248 seats, giving them a clear majority. If President Duda allows Law and Justice to form a government and they fail, the opposition coalition would then have the opportunity to attempt to form a government. If they are also unsuccessful, the president can select another candidate for prime minister, or call for fresh elections.
This process could potentially lead to a prolonged period without a stable government, extending into November and December, or even to fresh elections. The uncertainty surrounding Poland’s political future may cause instability and impact various aspects of society, such as the economy, foreign relations, and policymaking. The country needs a functioning government to address pressing issues and provide effective governance.
If the opposition coalition is appointed and confirmed in a vote of confidence, it will face significant challenges due to its political diversity. The coalition includes moderate conservatives, hard-left MPs, and others with contrasting views. For instance, while both Civic Coalition and the Left support liberalization of abortion rules, the Third Way takes a more conservative approach and proposes a referendum on the issue. Additionally, the Left aims to reduce the influence of the Catholic Church on state institutions, which may face resistance from some Third Way MPs.
Furthermore, the opposition coalition has pledged to restore the independence of the judiciary and the public media, which have been undermined under Law and Justice’s rule. However, these reforms could encounter opposition from President Duda and Poland’s top court, the Constitutional Tribunal, which is now controlled by judges sympathetic to Law and Justice. Both President Duda and the Constitutional Tribunal have the power to veto legislation proposed by an opposition government, potentially impeding their ability to implement reforms.
The outcome of this election not only affects Poland domestically but also has implications for its relationship with the European Union and international bodies. Law and Justice’s controversial reforms have drawn criticism from the European Commission and various international organizations, who argue that they have undermined judicial independence and media pluralism. The election of an opposition coalition may signal a return to closer alignment with the EU and a desire to address these concerns.
Overall, the political earthquake in Poland raises uncertainties and challenges for the country’s future. The formation of a stable government, navigating the diverse views within the opposition coalition, and overcoming potential barriers to reform will require careful deliberation and negotiation. Poland’s political destiny is at a crossroads, and its choices will shape the path forward for the nation and its people.
