The ongoing Israel-Gaza war has highlighted the deep fault lines in the Middle East, signaling a departure from previous conflicts. While previous wars would have likely resulted in a ceasefire by now, this war is different due to various geopolitical factors. For decades, the region has been divided between the allies of Iran and the allies of the United States, creating a serious rift. Iran’s network, known as the “axis of resistance,” includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iranian-supported militias in Iraq. Iran has also backed Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, while strengthening ties with Russia and China. As the war in Gaza continues, the risk of conflict involving these two camps increases.
One particular hotspot is the border between Israel and Lebanon, where tensions have been steadily rising. Both Israel and Hezbollah are wary of a full-scale war, but as they exchange heavier blows, the possibility of uncontrolled escalation grows. Additionally, the Houthis in Yemen have been launching missiles and drones towards Israel, which have been intercepted so far. In Iraq, Iranian-backed militias have targeted American bases, leading to limited retaliatory strikes by the US. Balancing military action in these situations is a challenging task.
On the side of the US are Israel, the Gulf oil states, Jordan, and Egypt. While President Joe Biden has expressed discomfort with Israel’s actions, the US continues to provide strong support. Arab allies of the US, however, have condemned Israel’s actions and called for a ceasefire. The displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza echoes the events of Israel’s victory in its independence war in 1948, also known as al Nakba or “the catastrophe.” Extreme Jewish nationalists supporting Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have made alarming statements about imposing another Nakba on Palestinians, causing concern among Arab states aligned with the US.
In Gaza itself, the war and its aftermath pose significant challenges. Senior western diplomats from countries allied with Israel’s allies have acknowledged that ending the war and dealing with the fallout will be difficult and messy. The need to rebuild a political horizon for Palestinians, including the possibility of an independent Palestine alongside Israel, is an ambitious yet necessary plan. Reviving the idea of a two-state solution, potentially as part of a wider accommodation between Israel and the Arab world, offers hope for a lasting resolution. However, the current environment of pain, alarm, and hatred presents significant obstacles.
The leadership in both Palestine and Israel poses further challenges to peace efforts. Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected America’s proposal to install a government led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, as well as the idea of a two-state solution. His political survival depends on the support of Jewish extremists who advocate for an expanded Israel. Many Israelis blame him for the security failures that allowed the recent attacks to occur and desire a change in leadership. On the Palestinian side, President Abbas, discredited and in his late 80s, has not subjected himself to elections since 2005. While the Palestinian Authority cooperates with Israel on security matters, it struggles to protect its own people from armed Jewish settlers.
Leaderships inevitably change, but unless this devastating war in Gaza spurs renewed efforts for peace, the future seems bleak. The cycle of war will only continue without a commitment from the Israelis, Palestinians, and their influential allies to pursue a lasting resolution.
