In the year following the mutiny by the Wagner Group against President Vladimir Putin’s government, Russia has successfully dismantled and replaced the paramilitary force. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the group, was killed along with several other senior members, leading to the fragmentation of ex-Wagner troops across the Russian state. Despite this, remnants of the group continue to exist in various forms within the Russian state.
Previously, Wagner’s forces had played a vital role in Russian operations in Africa and Syria. However, their operations in Ukraine brought them into the spotlight. With the disbanding of Wagner, experts believe that their operations in Ukraine have been absorbed by other Russian state and paramilitary units. Some of the group’s infantry units have reportedly been integrated into the Rosgvardia, or National Guard, controlled by Putin’s former bodyguard Viktor Zolotov.
The UK Ministry of Defence has indicated that former Wagner troops are being deployed to Ukraine and Africa under new contracts. Some have joined Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces in Chechnya, while others have integrated into the Rosgvardia’s Volunteer Corps. The incorporation of Wagner forces into the National Guard suggests increased state control over the group.
Following Prigozhin’s death, efforts to maintain Russian influence in Africa have continued, with the establishment of the Africa Corps, led by former GRU Gen Andrey Averyanov. This new unit offers recruits competitive salaries and positions them to serve Russian interests in West Africa. In West Africa, the Africa Corps has effectively replaced Wagner, serving the purposes of military intelligence and the ministry of defence.
The shifting focus from Wagner to the Africa Corps raises questions about the future of Russian military operations in Africa. The increased involvement of Russian forces in the continent aims to counter Western influence, particularly that of France. Despite these changes, remnants of Wagner still operate in the Central African Republic, primarily under the control of Prigozhin’s son Pavel.
As the Wagner Group’s operations decline and the Africa Corps takes center stage, the strategic importance of mercenary groups in Russian military activities is evolving. The legacy of the Wagner mutiny, while not eliciting significant public support, continues to shape Russia’s approach to mercenary operations and the pursuit of its geopolitical interests.
