The dangers for shipping in the Red Sea region have significantly increased in recent weeks, with Iranian-backed Houthi fighters conducting drone and missile attacks, as well as more audacious assaults by boat and helicopter. The Houthis, who control a significant portion of Yemen, have claimed to target commercial vessels with connections to Israel; however, many of the ships attacked have no discernible links to Israel whatsoever.
The attacks have largely occurred at the southern end of the Red Sea, along the Yemeni coast, and in the Gulf of Aden. Despite only a few successful strikes, such as the recent attack on the US-owned bulk carrier Genco Picardy, the increasing use of sophisticated weaponry, including long-range drones and missiles by the Houthi forces, has raised concerns about the involvement of Iran in arming the group. The US has seized parts for missiles and air defense systems on a fishing boat traveling from Iran to Yemen, and military analysts suspect that an Iranian cargo ship, the MV Behshad, has been retrofitted with surveillance equipment to aid Houthi attacks.
The threat to commercial shipping is compounded by the fact that lightly-equipped private guards accompanying these vessels are ill-equipped to defend against attacks from the air. Consequently, many shipping companies have opted to redirect their ships away from the Red Sea, opting for longer and more expensive routes around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. Others have disabled their on-board AIS tracking or made specific declarations on their location equipment to deter attackers.
The international response to the Houthi attacks has seen the US and UK carry out airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, and a US-led military partnership has been established to protect commercial shipping in the area. However, the Houthi forces’ control over mountainous terrain in Yemen has made it easier for them to conceal radar platforms, munitions, and launch vehicles, presenting a challenge to degrading their military capabilities.
Coordinating the efforts of multiple international partnerships presents an additional challenge. Bradley Martin, a former US Navy captain, highlights the expenses associated with sustaining an operation to protect shipping in the region, with the cost of intercept missiles far exceeding the cost of Houthi attack drones. It is clear that resolving the broader political issues, such as the Israel-Gaza conflict, is key to reducing the risk to shipping in the long term.
As the Houthi forces’ missile stockpiles deplete, experts predict an increase in attacks using drones and boats. While security measures can bring down the risk, the ultimate solution lies in addressing the underlying political tensions.
