In the wake of the Al-Ahli hospital’s destruction in Gaza, Joe Biden’s efforts to find a Middle East solution have become even more difficult. The strong support for Israel expressed by the US President has led to Palestinians and many Arabs perceiving the US as complicit in Israel’s actions. The ongoing dispute over responsibility for the attack has only fueled further hatred and division.
Israel has presented evidence to counter accusations of their involvement in the attack, claiming that a malfunctioned missile fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad was responsible. However, for Palestinians, this evidence is not convincing, as they view the incident as another example of Israel’s disregard for their lives. The destruction of the hospital occurred just as President Biden was preparing to visit the Middle East, leading to a disrupted schedule and dashed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough.
The cancellation of Jordan’s involvement in the summit and the condemnations from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan itself have further complicated President Biden’s trip and significantly increased the challenges he faces. Normally, leaders embark on diplomatic missions after substantial negotiation and with a deal ready to be signed. However, in the current situation, there is a risk that President Biden will return to Washington with few tangible results.
Alongside his support for Israel, President Biden aims to prevent the escalation of the war and has deployed two aircraft carrier battle groups to the region to serve as a deterrent to Iran and its ally, Hezbollah. The ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel has left leaders, both within and outside the Middle East, grappling with unprecedented uncertainty. Previously comforting assumptions about the region have been shattered, leaving a volatile and unstable situation.
Before the recent Hamas attacks, the status quo in the Middle East appeared to promise stability, even though leaders and their allies were not particularly fond of it. However, Hamas’ surprise attack exposed the vulnerabilities and failures of both the Israeli government and the assumption that the Palestinians could be managed without granting them independence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reluctance to make concessions and discuss transferring land to Palestinians for a future state has hindered the prospects of a peace agreement.
For the US’ Arab allies, the recent events have reminded them of the importance of the Palestinian issue. Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE had hopes of benefiting from President Biden’s plan to create a new Middle East and broker a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, this prospect now seems far off. The war in Gaza and the destruction of the hospital have also triggered fears among Arab leaders, who recall the Arab uprisings of 2011 when popular discontent led to revolutions across the region.
The current bloodshed has exposed the fragility of past certainties and paved the way for a new status quo to emerge from the war. It remains uncertain whether this shock will lead to new thinking and a potential breakthrough or if it will reinforce the old ways and further dim the outlook for peace in the region.
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