In recent news, Israel’s leaders have expressed their determination to wipe out Hamas and ensure that Gaza never returns to its previous state. While such ambitious goals may seem feasible in theory, they raise several concerns and risks, particularly when it comes to carrying out a ground invasion. Not only does urban warfare pose significant threats to the civilian population, but the operation also involves rescuing hostages and countering Hamas’s extensive network of tunnels.
Amidst this military operation, there are several factors that could derail its success. Hamas will undoubtedly be prepared for an Israeli offensive, setting up explosive devices and planning ambushes. Israeli forces have previously faced heavy losses during urban combat in Gaza City. To mitigate the risks, Israel has demanded the evacuation of 1.1 million Palestinians from the northern half of the Gaza Strip. Additionally, the duration of the campaign is uncertain, and international pressure to de-escalate the situation may intensify if the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens.
The hostages held by Hamas add an additional layer of complexity to the operation. While many of them are Israelis, there are also foreign citizens and dual nationals among them, prompting other governments to have a stake in their safe release. The Munich Olympics incident in 1972, where Palestinian gunmen kidnapped and killed Israeli athletes, serves as a historical parallel that highlights Israel’s determination to pursue and neutralize those responsible. However, rescuing numerous hostages scattered across Gaza poses a significant challenge for Israel’s elite unit, Sayeret Matkal.
Israel’s stance on prisoner releases has also shifted since 2011. The extensive exchange of prisoners that year resulted in key Hamas members, such as Yahya Sinwar, being freed. The possibility of another major prisoner release now seems less likely, considering the potential ramifications. Furthermore, Israel’s neighbors, particularly Egypt and Lebanon, could exert pressure or pose additional threats to Israel while the operation unfolds. Egypt may face increased pressure to act in support of Palestinians, but it is unlikely to allow mass crossings or military action against Israel.
If Hamas were significantly weakened or removed from power, the question arises as to who would fill the vacuum. Israel withdrew its military and settlers from Gaza in 2005, and the intention is not to return as an occupying force. This potentially opens the door for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to regain control in Gaza, as it currently governs parts of the West Bank. A shift in power could also benefit Egypt, as they would prefer a more pragmatic neighbor. Rebuilding Gaza’s devastated infrastructure will be an essential task post-conflict, with Israel likely imposing stricter restrictions on dual-use goods that could have a military function.
In conclusion, an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza presents numerous challenges and potential consequences. While the military aims to dismantle Hamas and ensure the safety of Israeli civilians, the risks to both Israeli and Palestinian populations, as well as the international pressure to de-escalate, should be carefully considered. The complexity of hostage rescue, potential prisoner releases, and regional dynamics further complicate the operation. Additionally, the aftermath of the conflict raises questions about the future governance of Gaza and the rebuilding of infrastructure while balancing security concerns.
