Slovakia is on the verge of elections following the collapse of its former centre-right government. The populist SMER party, led by Robert Fico, is currently leading in the polls and has promised to end military support for Ukraine. This pledge has raised concerns in Western capitals, as it may indicate a potential crack in NATO and EU unity. While Slovakia has been a steadfast ally of Ukraine, supplying them with military equipment, there is not much left to offer. Commercial contracts for heavy weapons remain, but these contracts provide jobs for Slovaks and revenue for the state. The question now is whether a Fico government would intervene and jeopardize these contracts.
SMER’s stance on Ukraine reflects a divisive political landscape in Slovakia. Progressive Slovakia, a liberal, pro-western party, is neck-and-neck with SMER in the polls and promises to maintain military aid to Ukraine. The party’s deputy leader has expressed concerns that Fico’s re-election could lead to an authoritarian future for Slovakia, similar to the times under Vladimir Meciar.
The elections are not only significant for their impact on Ukraine, but also for the future direction of Slovakia as a whole. Many Slovak university students studying abroad will return home to vote, highlighting the issue of brain drain in the country. Disillusionment with poor higher education and healthcare, lack of tolerance, and a general sense of discontent have led to a significant number of Slovak graduates leaving the country and never returning. Progressive Slovakia offers a vision of an open, tolerant, and cosmopolitan society, while SMER campaigns on stability, order, and social security.
The elections are expected to result in a fragmented parliament, with multiple parties vying for power. Forming a coalition could be messy and lead to further political instability. The implications of Slovakia’s political landscape extend beyond its borders, as some fear that a Fico government will pull Slovakia back towards Moscow’s orbit. A survey conducted earlier this year revealed that only 40% of Slovaks believed Russia was responsible for the war in Ukraine, while half viewed the United States as a security threat. This suggests that SMER’s rhetoric aligns with the sentiments of a significant portion of the population.
As the elections approach, Slovakia finds itself at a critical juncture. The outcome not only has implications for Ukraine and the geopolitical landscape of Central Europe but also for the future of Slovak society. The choice between SMER and Progressive Slovakia represents a fundamental decision about the country’s values, direction, and place in the international community. The results of the elections will determine whether Slovakia remains a bridge between east and west or succumbs to internal division and external influences.
