The recent abduction of over 200 hostages by Hamas from southern Israel has put the small Arab Gulf state of Qatar in the spotlight. As the principal mediator between Israel and Hamas, Qatar’s actions hold the key to the fate of these hostages. While both President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have expressed gratitude to Qatar for its role in securing the release of four hostages, the challenges and risks faced by Qatar in this delicate situation cannot be overlooked.
Qatar’s position as a mediator puts it at the forefront of negotiations for the release of more hostages in the coming days. However, the success of these negotiations is heavily dependent on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Any Israeli ground incursion into Gaza would complicate the negotiations and make the release of additional hostages much harder. According to Qatari officials, the remaining hostages are likely to be dual-nationals and non-Israelis, while Hamas aims to exchange the Israeli servicemen it has kidnapped for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
While Qatar takes on this role as a mediator, it also faces significant risks. Questions have been raised about why Qatar, a major western ally hosting a US military base, is providing a home for the political wing of an organization designated as a terrorist group by the UK, US, and others. If Qatar’s efforts yield little success, its standing in the West may suffer, and there could be pressure to close the Hamas office in Doha.
Hostage negotiations in this context are incredibly delicate. Israel is still recovering from the brutal attacks by Hamas on October 7th, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,400 people. Gaza, where Hamas governs, has been subjected to relentless Israeli air strikes, resulting in over 5,000 deaths, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. The international community, including the UN, is calling for an urgent ceasefire, while Israel vows to eradicate Hamas.
Qatar’s role as a mediator relies on its hosting of the political leadership of Hamas in Doha. The Qatari government officials, who are familiar with senior Hamas figures and have been to Gaza themselves, work alongside Hamas officials to navigate the complexities of hostage releases. Despite not having formal diplomatic relations with Israel, Qatar maintains back-channel communications and has been able to speak to Israeli interlocutors during critical moments of the negotiations.
Hamas appears to gain little from the release of its hostages and has faced criticism for kidnapping women and children, which is seen as against Islamic injunctions by some. Additionally, keeping the location of the hostages secret from Israel and providing for their needs during the ongoing conflict present logistical challenges for Hamas. On the other hand, releasing hostages buys Hamas time and puts pressure on the Israeli government to delay its planned ground incursion into Gaza.
The mechanics of the actual releases further complicate the negotiations. Hamas has kept the hostages hidden underground in tunnels, and the few released individuals have been handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross. However, plans to release up to 50 or more hostages would require a pause in the airstrikes, which Hamas hopes to turn into a ceasefire. The Israeli government, committed to destroying Hamas, is reluctant to grant any breathing space to the organization.
Qatar’s role as a mediator is not entirely new. In the past, Qatar has facilitated talks with the Taliban, hosted their de facto embassy in Doha, and used its diplomatic connections to secure the release of hostages held by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. This year, Qatar successfully negotiated the return of four Ukrainian children allegedly abducted by Russia. These instances have established Qatar as a valuable partner for many countries seeking its assistance in resolving hostage situations.
However, Qatar’s involvement in this crisis highlights its delicate diplomatic tightrope. The outcome of this conflict will greatly impact Qatar’s standing, and its ability to de-escalate the situation in Gaza and secure the release of as many hostages as possible will be key to determining its success.
