In a surprising turn of events, the Maldives has elected a pro-China candidate, Mohamed Muizzu, as its president, defeating the incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. The victory of Muizzu, who campaigned with the slogan “India out,” signals a shift in the country’s foreign policy towards closer ties with China and away from India, which had been the country’s traditional ally. This election outcome will have significant implications for the regional power dynamics and may strain the relationship between India and the Maldives.
President Solih, who had been in power since 2018, pursued an “India-first” policy, strengthening cultural and financial ties with India. The Maldives has long been under India’s sphere of influence, and India’s presence in the Maldives has allowed it to monitor a key part of the Indian Ocean. This strategic location has become even more critical as China expands its naval forces and seeks access to the region. With Muizzu’s victory, China now has a potential ally in the Maldives, which could provide it with a foothold in the Indian Ocean and further its geopolitical ambitions.
China’s interest in the Maldives is not purely geopolitical but also driven by its need to protect its energy supplies from the Gulf, which pass through the region. By establishing closer ties with the Maldives, China can ensure the security of these vital energy routes. On the other hand, India has a vested interest in maintaining its influence in the Maldives to counter China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean region.
The election of Muizzu marks a shift from the previous administration’s China-friendly policies. Under former President Abdulla Yameen, the Maldives moved closer to China and joined President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, Yameen’s term was marred by corruption, and he is currently serving a prison term, barring him from contesting in this year’s election.
The outcome of the election has sparked celebrations among supporters of Muizzu, who gathered in front of the Progressive Party headquarters. Muizzu has a background in civil engineering and held various positions in the government, including the minister of housing. He has been instrumental in signing off on major infrastructure projects, such as a $200 million bridge connecting Male with the international airport on a different island.
As the new president, Muizzu’s approach towards foreign policy and international relations will be closely watched. His election may strain the relationship between India and the Maldives, as he favors closer ties with China. This could potentially lead to a realignment of alliances in the region, with India seeking to strengthen relationships with other countries to counterbalance China’s influence.
It is imperative for stakeholders in the region, particularly India, to assess and recalibrate their strategies to adapt to this new geopolitical landscape. The Maldives’ pivot towards China will have implications not only for regional power dynamics but also for other countries with strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.
While it is too early to predict the long-term consequences of Muizzu’s presidency, this election outcome underscores the growing influence of China in the Indian Ocean region and highlights the need for proactive measures by India and other stakeholders to safeguard their interests. The coming months will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the Maldives’ foreign policy and its impact on the regional balance of power.
