Poland’s opposition parties, led by Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition, have signed a coalition deal to pave the way for them to form a new government following the parliamentary elections held last month. The pro-EU opposition, comprising of Civic Coalition, the agrarian conservative Third Way party, and the New Left, won a majority in the elections. However, they will have to wait as the ruling right-wing nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) has been given the first opportunity to form a coalition. Despite winning the largest number of seats, PiS is unlikely to succeed in forming a government as all other parties have ruled out working with them.
The coalition deal focuses on several key policy goals, including strengthening Poland’s position in the EU and NATO, addressing security concerns in the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine, depoliticizing state institutions, and overturning controversial legal rulings such as the near-total ban on abortions. The parties also aim to separate the Church and State to ensure a secular government and media. Donald Tusk, the former European Council chief and leader of Civic Coalition, has been nominated as the candidate for prime minister.
However, not all parties within the pro-Tusk bloc have officially joined the coalition. The Together party, which ran as part of the New Left, has expressed concerns about the coalition’s approach, particularly on issues such as abortion rights and increased spending on healthcare and education. Nonetheless, the Tusk coalition still has a majority even without the nine seats won by the Together party.
The opposition’s timely signing of the coalition deal serves to demonstrate their readiness to govern and their ability to secure the required number of seats. They aim to convey this message to President Andrzej Duda, who is a PiS ally. The opposition highlights that PiS falls short of the necessary number of seats to form a government. However, President Duda, a former PiS member, may be inclined to delay the process to create divisions within the opposition.
The next step in the process is for MPs and parliamentary speakers to be sworn in on Monday, following which Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and his government will resign, becoming a caretaker government until a new government is formed. President Duda then has 14 days to nominate a prime minister, and he has already indicated his support for Mr. Morawiecki. If Mr. Morawiecki fails to form a government, parliament will have the right to designate a prime minister, likely leading to Donald Tusk assuming the role.
Regardless of who forms the government, a coalition led by Donald Tusk comprising of parties with differing ideologies will face significant challenges. While they share pro-EU and judicial independence objectives, there are disagreements on issues such as the extent to which Poland’s strict abortion law should be liberalized.
The outcome of this coalition and its policies will impact Poland’s political landscape, its relationship with the EU, and its stance on various social issues. It remains to be seen how the opposition can navigate these challenges and effectively govern the country in the coming years.
