Indonesia, the third-largest democracy in the world, is set to hold its sixth election since transitioning from a military dictatorship in the 1990s. This election is a three-way race for the presidency, featuring Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and two former governors, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo. The outcome of this election has significant implications for both Indonesia and the broader Indo-Pacific region, as the winner will have to navigate the growing US-China rivalry.
Prabowo Subianto, the frontrunner, has been trying to shed his strongman image, but his association with the abuses committed during General Suharto’s regime continues to haunt him. Accused of ordering the abduction and torture of democracy activists, Prabowo’s past raises concerns about a potential regression towards Indonesia’s authoritarian past. Despite his previous unsuccessful attempts, Prabowo, with the endorsement of President Joko Widodo’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is closer than ever to the top job.
Anies Baswedan, the former Jakarta governor, has emerged as the second strongest candidate in the race. His criticism of Jokowi’s plan to move the capital from Jakarta gained him popularity and positioned him as an alternative to the other candidates. Anies aims to boost equitable growth by focusing on the development of existing cities rather than building a new capital from scratch. His aligned stance with conservative Islamic groups in the country has received support, and he promises job creation, improved credit access, and infrastructure upgrades.
Ganjar Pranowo, the governor of one of Indonesia’s largest provinces, presents himself as a humble man of the people. While lacking the backing of President Widodo, Ganjar relies on his populist appeal and grassroots campaign to garner support. His platform includes millions of jobs, social welfare expansion, and increased accessibility to higher education. However, the withdrawal of Indonesia from hosting the Under-20 Fifa World Cup due to Ganjar’s opposition to Israel’s participation has caused some backlash from football fans.
The outcome of this election will shape the trajectory of democracy and political stability in Indonesia. A potential victory for Prabowo raises concerns for human rights activists, as it could signal a return to Suharto-era authoritarianism. On the other hand, Anies Baswedan offers an alternative vision with a focus on existing city development and Islamic-leaning policies. Ganjar Pranowo’s populist agenda presents a different approach centered around job creation and social welfare expansion.
Indonesia’s next president will also face the challenge of navigating the US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region. This dynamic is particularly crucial considering Indonesia’s strategic location and large economy. Additionally, the winner will have to address longstanding issues such as air pollution and traffic congestion, while also advancing infrastructure development and economic growth.
As the election unfolds, it is essential for voters and observers to carefully evaluate the candidates’ platforms, track records, and their potential impact on Indonesia’s democratic institutions and international relations. The country’s future depends on making an informed choice that aligns with the values of democracy, progress, and inclusivity.
