As Bangladesh prepares for its upcoming general elections, scheduled for 7 January, one cannot ignore the intense discussions surrounding its giant neighbor, India. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is seeking a fourth consecutive term, and her victory seems almost certain, considering the main opposition parties’ decision to boycott the election. However, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies have raised concerns about the fairness of the election and have demanded a neutral interim government. These demands have been rejected by Hasina, leading to a further strain in the political landscape of Bangladesh.
India, with its shared borders and close ties to Bangladesh, plays a crucial role in these elections. It is not merely a neighboring country but also a strategic partner for Bangladesh, especially in terms of ensuring the security of its northeastern states. Indian policymakers argue that having a friendly regime in Dhaka is essential for India’s own interests. Over the years, Hasina has cultivated a strong relationship with India, and it is no secret that India supports her return to power.
However, this overt backing of Hasina by India has drawn sharp criticism from the opposition BNP. They argue that India should support the people of Bangladesh rather than a particular political party. This alleged interference from India has led to accusations of a “dummy election,” further exacerbating tensions between the two countries. The Indian government, on the other hand, has maintained a neutral stance, stating that elections in Bangladesh are a domestic matter, and it is for the people of Bangladesh to decide their own future.
One of India’s concerns regarding the elections is the potential return of the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami party, which could pave the way for the resurgence of Islamist groups in Bangladesh. During their previous coalition government between 2001 and 2006, these parties allegedly gave rise to various jihadi groups and were involved in acts of violence. India fears that a similar scenario could unfold again, jeopardizing regional stability.
Beyond the political sphere, India and Bangladesh share close cultural, ethnic, and linguistic ties. India has played a significant role in Bangladesh’s struggle for independence from Pakistan by providing military support to the Bengali Resistance Force in 1971. Today, Dhaka relies on Delhi for the supply of essential commodities such as rice, pulses, and vegetables. The economic and infrastructural cooperation between the two countries has also grown, with India offering substantial financial assistance through its Line of Credit program.
Despite these close ties, there have been occasional challenges in the bilateral relationship. Disputes over water resources and allegations of meddling in each other’s internal affairs have strained the India-Bangladesh relationship. Such challenges have contributed to an image problem for India in Bangladesh, with some perceiving India as an unreliable neighbor. Achieving equitable sharing and addressing these concerns will be crucial for fostering stronger ties between the two countries.
The role of India in Bangladesh’s elections extends beyond geopolitics. India’s domestic policies and treatment of religious minorities have raised concerns among many Bangladeshis. The rise of the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India has been associated with increased discrimination against religious minorities, particularly Muslims. This has led to fears among some Bangladeshis that the maltreatment of Indian Muslims could potentially result in similar treatment of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh.
While Delhi has made its preference for a Hasina-led government clear, it will be essential for India to reach out to the people of Bangladesh and address their concerns. Building trust and fostering positive relations will require India to address perceptions of interference and work towards ensuring the well-being of religious and ethnic minorities in the region.
As the Bangladesh elections draw closer, the impact of India’s role will be closely watched. The outcome of the elections will not only shape the political landscape of Bangladesh but also have broader implications for regional geopolitics. India’s influence, both covert and overt, will undoubtedly continue to be a significant factor in the future of Bangladesh.
