The leader of the Lebanese Shia Islamist group Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to break his silence on the Israel-Gaza war in a speech to his followers. This raises concerns about the group’s potential next moves, as both Hezbollah fighters and the Israeli army are engaged in intense attacks along the Lebanon-Israel border. While the violence has largely been contained to the border area, there are fears that the conflict could further escalate if Hezbollah decides to join the fight.
Hezbollah is considered a terrorist organization by the UK, the US, and others, and it holds significant political and military power in Lebanon. Its decisions have far-reaching consequences, not only for its supporters but also for the entire country. Nasrallah’s speech is eagerly anticipated by both followers and foes, as it could provide insight into the group’s intentions.
The 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel still haunts the memory of many in Lebanon, and there is concern that a new conflict could be devastating for the country. Hezbollah possesses a vast arsenal of weapons, including precision-guided missiles that can reach deep into Israeli territory, as well as a large number of well-trained fighters. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of an “unimaginable” response if Hezbollah opens a second front in the conflict.
The United States, reportedly urging Israel to avoid a large-scale attack on Hezbollah, has deployed two aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean to prevent the conflict from spreading. Lebanon is already grappling with economic crisis and political impasse, making it highly vulnerable to the consequences of a full-scale war.
One possible scenario is an increase in Hezbollah’s attacks, signaling a response to Hamas’s calls for support, while confining the fighting to northern Israel. The Biden administration is actively warning Iran, a key supporter of Hezbollah, against escalating the situation. Iran backs the so-called Axis of Resistance, which includes Hezbollah, militias in Iraq, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas. The extent of Iran’s influence over these groups is uncertain, but major decisions are unlikely to be made without Iran’s approval.
The Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, recently criticized Israel’s actions, suggesting that widespread support for Israel from the US may force others to take action. However, it remains unclear how far Iran is willing to go in supporting its allies in the conflict.
Nasrallah has been closely monitoring the situation and maintaining contact with Hezbollah’s military leadership, despite his public silence. The group is said to be carefully assessing the details and making calculations regarding its response.
Any escalation of the conflict involving Hezbollah could have significant implications not only for the region but also for global politics. The international community is watching closely, with hopes that the situation can be contained without further bloodshed and devastation. However, the unpredictability of the situation and the potential for miscalculations leave room for concern and caution.
