In a significant development, all 221 Republicans backed a formal impeachment hearing of President Joe Biden in the US House of Representatives. However, the support comes with political risks for certain lawmakers, primarily those representing vulnerable districts that were won by President Biden in the 2020 election. These House members now face the challenge of defending their support for an investigation that could be perceived as deeply partisan by their constituents.
The outcome of this impeachment inquiry and how these lawmakers handle the situation could have a significant impact on the balance of power in the House of Representatives. Considering that Republicans hold a slim majority, the tight-rope walk for these swing-district representatives is crucial. Republican pollster Dan Judy expressed concern, mentioning that these lawmakers are already facing uphill battles in their swing districts.
The push to impeach President Biden stems from Republicans’ long-standing investigations into his son, Hunter Biden, and his alleged involvement in illegal or unethical business activities. However, despite recent tax violation charges against Hunter Biden, Republicans have struggled to implicate President Biden in any related wrongdoing. This raises questions among swing and independent voters about whether an impeachment inquiry is the most effective use of government resources.
Most lawmakers representing districts won by President Biden seemed to be aware of the political calculus associated with this vote. They either issued cautious statements or remained silent. Those who did speak up framed their decision as a vote in favor of granting the House greater investigatory power, rather than a wholehearted endorsement of impeaching President Biden.
However, the Democratic committee responsible for winning back the House wasted no time in launching individual attacks against vulnerable lawmakers who voted in favor of advancing the impeachment inquiry. One such lawmaker, Rep. Young Kim of California, was swiftly targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The committee accused her of prioritizing Donald Trump’s interests over those of the American people.
The stakes are particularly high for New York representatives, as there are currently five Republicans in the state representing districts won by President Biden. These lawmakers made gains in 2022 by capitalizing on suburban voters’ concerns about crime and the economy, which they attributed to President Biden. However, they now face newly redrawn districts in 2024 that are expected to favor Democrats, creating a challenging situation for them.
Some of these lawmakers, including Rep. Mike Lawler, justified their support for the inquiry by emphasizing the need for stronger legal positions to gather evidence and witness testimony. However, Democratic strategist Evan Stavisky warned about the dangers of either party going too far ahead, as the electorate tends to revert to the mean. Public opinion on President Biden’s actions remains divided among Americans, with responses heavily influenced by party affiliation.
While this impeachment inquiry has gained the support of all Republicans in the House, only a third of Americans currently support it, according to a recent poll. The National Republican Congressional Committee refrained from commenting on the potential effects on their candidates, but highlighted the polling data to underscore the divisive nature of the issue. It is worth noting that analysts suggest it is premature to predict the political outcome for these House members, as the next election is still more than a year away. However, their decisions on the impeachment inquiry could significantly shape their political fortunes and the balance of power in the House next year.
At-Risk Republicans Face Political Peril in Biden Impeachment
