With the apparent victory of Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia’s presidential election, the country now faces a significant turning point in its history. While many had predicted Prabowo’s win, the wide margin by which he beat his opponents came as a surprise. As this transition takes place, there are several key factors to consider and potential impacts that may arise.
One crucial aspect is the slow transition process from one administration to another in Indonesia. It will take up to a month for the Election Commission to confirm the results, and the inauguration of the new president is scheduled for October. During these interim months, intense negotiations will occur to determine the composition of Prabowo’s government.
A notable challenge for Prabowo is the projected low number of parliamentary seats his party, Gerindra, is expected to win. With only around 13% of the seats, he will need to secure the support and backing of other parties to establish a working majority in parliament. This will likely require offering inducements in the form of cabinet positions to entice support from parties whose candidates opposed Prabowo in the presidential race.
The approach Prabowo takes to coalition politics will be crucial in maintaining stability and avoiding a repeat of what some call “opposition-less politics” experienced during Jokowi’s tenure. Jokowi’s ability to co-opt opponents and secure the backing of over 80% of MPs allowed him to push through his infrastructure projects smoothly. However, Prabowo’s less compliant leadership style raises questions about whether he will pursue a similar “big tent” approach to governing.
Another factor that will significantly impact Prabowo’s presidency is his relationship with Megawati Sukarnoputri, leader of the PDIP party, and a central figure in Indonesian politics. The PDIP had been President Jokowi’s primary parliamentary sponsor, and they were shocked by his switch to the Prabowo camp. Whether Megawati is willing to be in opposition or can be persuaded to join the ruling coalition will heavily influence the dynamics of Prabowo’s presidency.
Furthermore, the future relationship between Prabowo and President Jokowi raises intrigue. Jokowi’s enduring popularity played a critical role in Prabowo’s success, with Jokowi’s support attracting a significant number of voters who may have otherwise backed the PDIP candidate. In the event of Prabowo’s incapacitation, his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, would likely succeed him. However, relying on familial relationships, as seen in the Philippines, can result in unpredictable outcomes, as alliances can quickly sour once power dynamics shift.
Prabowo’s presidency signifies a departure from Jokowi’s leadership style, with significant concerns raised by many Indonesians about his character and proponents of human rights. Prabowo’s controversial past, including allegations of human rights abuses, has led some to fear a xenophobic and authoritarian leader. However, during the campaign, he attempted to transform his image into that of a benign and grandfatherly figure. Observers must consider whether his change is genuine or merely a strategic ploy to secure the presidency.
It is important to recognize Prabowo’s long-standing ambition for the presidency and his determination to rebuild his image after being dismissed from the army and experiencing forced exile. Throughout his campaign, he promised to continue his predecessor’s policies, portraying himself as a continuation of a long line of Indonesian presidents rather than a radical departure. As Prabowo assumes power, Indonesians must prepare for a different style of leadership accompanied by a mix of continuity and potential change in policies and governance.
Overall, Indonesia is in for a transformative period as Prabowo Subianto assumes the presidency. The negotiations for forming a government, the dynamics with various political parties, and the personal relationships between Prabowo and influential figures will significantly shape his presidency. Additionally, concerns about his character and past will need to be addressed, and Indonesians will need to adjust to a new leadership style. As this chapter unfolds, the world will closely watch the impact of a Prabowo presidency on Indonesia’s future.
