In recent weeks, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un has raised concerns with his increased aggression and rhetoric, leading to speculation about the country’s intentions and the potential for war. While some experts argue that Kim is preparing for a full-scale conflict, most analysts believe that a more limited attack is a more likely scenario.
The speculation about Kim’s intentions began with the assertions of two prominent North Korea experts, Robert L Carlin and Siegfried S Hecker, who argued that Kim has made a strategic decision to go to war. They pointed to his abandonment of the goal of reunification with South Korea and his actions, such as the demolition of the Reunification Arch and the recent test of a new solid-fueled missile. These experts argue that Kim’s increased bluster and provocations indicate a readiness for conflict.
However, many other analysts disagree with this assessment. They argue that a full-scale war would be extremely risky for the North Korean regime, as it would likely result in the end of Kim’s rule. They point to the country’s reopening to foreign tourists and its sale of shells to Russia as evidence that North Korea is not preparing for war.
Instead, these analysts suggest that a more limited attack is a more likely possibility. They point to previous provocations by North Korea, such as the shelling of the island of Yeonpyeong in 2010, as a potential blueprint for future actions. A limited attack, such as shelling or occupying contested islands, could test the South Korean government’s limits and provoke a disproportionate retaliatory response.
While war fears should be taken seriously, it is important to consider the broader context in which Kim is operating. Some analysts suggest that his actions are aimed at stabilizing his regime and justifying increased spending on missiles despite reports of starvation in the country. They argue that presenting South Korea as the enemy allows the North Korean government to crack down on South Korean culture and reinforce its own ideology.
The current geopolitical situation also plays a role in Kim’s actions. North Korea’s closer friendship with Russia and continued economic support from China may have emboldened the regime. Technical assistance from Russia in achieving its long-term goal of launching spy satellites suggests a growing confidence in its capabilities.
To fully understand Kim’s intentions, some experts argue that engagement with North Korea is necessary. They suggest that meeting with Kim could help reduce misjudgments and prevent war. They emphasize that talking to the leader of an enemy nation is not surrendering to their threats but a means to achieve a goal.
While the possibility of war with North Korea raises significant concerns, it is important to carefully consider the available evidence and expert analysis before drawing conclusions. The international community, particularly South Korea, the United States, and their allies, must prepare for worst-case scenarios while also engaging in diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and prevent conflict.
