The recent victory of Prabowo Subianto in the Indonesian presidential election has significant implications for the country’s future. Despite initial speculation surrounding the margin of his win, it is now widely accepted that Prabowo will be the next president of Indonesia for the next five years. As Indonesia undergoes the transition from one administration to another, it is crucial to consider the potential impacts and challenges that lie ahead.
One of the immediate implications of Prabowo’s victory is the need for intense negotiations to form a new government. While his win in the presidential race was emphatic, his party, Gerindra, is projected to win only around 13% of the seats in parliament. This means that Prabowo will have to persuade other parties to support him in order to have a working majority in parliament and pass necessary legislation. It will require offering inducements in the form of cabinet positions, which may be complicated by the fact that some of these parties supported rival presidential candidates.
Another key consideration is Prabowo’s approach to coalition politics. Outgoing President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo successfully co-opted his opponents during his last term in office, ensuring the backing of over 80% of MPs. This created a harmonious political environment, enabling Jokowi to push through his infrastructure projects. The question now is whether Prabowo will adopt a similar “big tent” approach to governance or take a different path. Additionally, the relationship between Prabowo and Megawati Sukarnoputri, the leader of the PDIP and the largest party, will play a crucial role in shaping Indonesia’s future political landscape. Megawati was President Jokowi’s main parliamentary sponsor, but tensions arose when Jokowi switched to the Prabowo camp. The reconciliation between these two influential figures will significantly impact Prabowo’s ability to govern effectively.
The future relationship between Prabowo and Jokowi also warrants attention. Jokowi’s popularity played a critical role in Prabowo’s victory, with many voters swayed by his endorsement. However, Prabowo’s uncertain health raises concerns, as his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka would succeed him if he were incapacitated. This scenario resembles the Philippine election in 2022, where Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr secured the presidency with the support of the incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte. However, their once-allied families subsequently fell out, leaving Duterte with limited influence. Prabowo might also discover that he no longer needs Jokowi’s support now that he has assumed the presidency.
Indonesians will also need to adapt to Prabowo’s distinct leadership style. Unlike his predecessor, Jokowi, who is known for his soft-spoken and conciliatory demeanor, Prabowo is perceived as having an ill-tempered and abrasive personality. His background as an officer in the Indonesian special forces, coupled with allegations of human rights abuses, has raised concerns among many Indonesians. However, during the campaign, Prabowo presented himself as a quirky grandfatherly figure, potentially reshaping his public image to appeal to a broader demographic. His promises to continue his predecessor’s development and infrastructure-focused policies suggest a desire to position himself as a successor rather than a radical departure from Indonesia’s presidential lineage.
In conclusion, Prabowo Subianto’s victory in the Indonesian presidential election has set the stage for a new era in Indonesian politics. The formation of a new government, coalition negotiations, and the dynamics between Prabowo, Megawati Sukarnoputri, and President Jokowi will shape the trajectory of Indonesia’s future. Furthermore, Prabowo’s leadership style and commitment to continuing development policies will determine whether he can gain the trust and support of the Indonesian people. As Indonesians brace themselves for a shift in leadership, the challenges and opportunities ahead will define the country’s path in the coming years.
