Recent clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan have resulted in the deaths of four Armenian soldiers and the injury of a fifth. This marks the first instance of violence on the border between the two countries since peace talks commenced. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of attempting to escalate tensions, highlighting concerns that Azerbaijan’s President, Ilham Aliyev, may engage in further military action to seize Armenian territory. The attack occurred in Armenia’s southeastern Syunik province, shortly after President Aliyev won his fifth term in office. The defence ministry in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital, claimed that the attack was in response to an Azerbaijani soldier being wounded a few kilometers away. Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry criticized the incident as a blow to the peace process, particularly given the recent stability in relations between the countries. The incident also raised concerns about the European Union’s mission in Armenia, as the shooting occurred in areas monitored by the mission.
Last year, Azerbaijan recaptured the Nagorno-Karabakh region from ethnic Armenians, leading to the displacement of over 100,000 Armenians. The recent border conflict has reignited suspicions that Azerbaijan, with the support of Russia, is seeking to compel Armenia to open the Zangezur corridor, a rail and road route through Armenian territory to Azerbaijan’s exclave of Nakhchivan and potentially Turkey. Iran has expressed concern over this plan, as it seeks to connect Turkey and Azerbaijan through Armenia. Russia has called for restraint from both countries and has maintained peacekeepers in the Karabakh region, although they are scheduled to withdraw next year. Armenia, which previously relied heavily on Russia for defense, has started to distance itself from its former ally and seek arms suppliers from France and India. Removing Russia’s influence poses challenges, as a significant portion of Armenia’s infrastructure is under Russian control, and the country is a member of Russian military and political blocs.
Armenia has also been discussing constitutional changes demanded by Azerbaijan as part of the proposed peace deal. These changes would remove references to the goal of unification with Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia’s main law. Azerbaijan views this as a continued legal claim to Azerbaijani territory. However, tens of thousands of Armenians have expressed opposition to the constitutional change through a petition, and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s popularity has declined since the military defeat. Pro-government commentators in Azerbaijan have attributed the recent violence to Armenian opposition voices rather than the prime minister, suggesting that they possess influence within the Armenian armed forces. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are working towards a peace deal to resolve the long-standing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Overall, the recent border conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has heightened tensions and raised concerns about the potential for further military action. The involvement of external powers, such as Russia and the European Union, adds complexity to the situation. The proposed constitutional changes in Armenia and the opposition to those changes also contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the peace process. It is crucial for all parties involved to exercise restraint and pursue diplomatic means to achieve a lasting resolution to the conflict.
