Ukraine is facing the challenge of downsizing military operations due to a drop-off in foreign aid, according to top general Oleksandr Tarnavskyi. Troops are experiencing ammunition shortages along the entire front line, which is causing a significant problem for Kyiv. The delay in billions of dollars of US and EU military aid, caused by political disputes, has exacerbated the situation. Ukraine hopes to strengthen its ammunition industry with support from the West, but heavily relies on Western supplies, especially long-range missiles and air defense systems, to combat occupying Russian forces.
General Tarnavskyi explained that the country lacks artillery shells, particularly for its Soviet-era weapons. The current volumes are insufficient to meet the country’s needs, resulting in the redistribution and downsizing of tasks originally planned. As a result of diminishing foreign military aid, Ukraine has already witnessed an impact on the battlefield, necessitating a change in tactics. Some areas have shifted to defense, while others continue offensive actions. The country is also preparing reserves for future large-scale operations, with the intention remaining the same but tactics evolving.
Both the US and EU have experienced setbacks in providing aid to Ukraine. US Republicans recently blocked a $60 billion package for Ukraine, while Hungary blocked a €50 billion aid deal from the EU. Nevertheless, EU leaders assured Ukraine that it would not be left without support. European countries have pledged to deliver one million artillery shells by March 2024, but only 480,000 have been delivered or are in progress. The US has provided over two million 155mm shells for Western-made artillery systems, but its own stocks have been depleted, leading to the decision to send cluster munitions last summer.
Ukraine’s current ammunition usage surpasses the production capacity of its partners. A report by the Estonian defense ministry highlighted that Kyiv requires a minimum of 200,000 artillery shells per month to maintain an advantage against Russia. Sustaining this rate will deplete European and US stockpiles by 2024, necessitating significant foreign purchases of ammunition. To compensate for the lack of artillery shells, Ukraine is increasing the production of kamikaze drones and ramping up its own production of artillery rounds for its Soviet-era weapons.
Ukraine aims to enhance its defense industry by collaborating with Western companies to produce ammunition on its own soil. Negotiations with US companies regarding joint production were a focal point during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the US in December. Several agreements were signed to initiate joint production. Ukraine recognizes that it cannot match Russia’s resources and manpower and seeks to achieve technological superiority.
Despite the challenges, Ukraine remains optimistic that its international partners will overcome political differences and continue providing aid. The country appreciates both bloc-level and bilateral support from EU countries. However, this situation has sent a signal to Russia that international support for Ukraine is weakening. Concerns arise regarding Russia’s ability to outlast the West due to the shift of its economy toward a war footing.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated his belief that the war will only end when Russia achieves its goals. Estonia’s defense adviser to NATO, Kalle Kirss, emphasized the need for Europe to commit funding to support Ukraine and signal to Russia their readiness for a protracted war and boosted industry and resources.
