In a significant diplomatic milestone, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is set to visit China, marking the first visit by an Australian leader in seven years. The visit comes after a period of strained relations between the two countries, characterized by disputes, sanctions, and accusations. However, recent gestures from both sides indicate a willingness to repair the relationship and explore new avenues of cooperation. While these developments hold promise, analysts caution that the underlying structural issues between the two nations have not been resolved. As Australia and China vie for influence in the Pacific Islands region and navigate military tensions, the path to a fully restored relationship remains uncertain.
One significant development that paved the way for the visit was China’s surprise release of Chinese-Australian journalist Cheng Lei, who had been detained for over three years on national security charges. Additionally, China announced its intention to review its tariffs on Australian exports, while Australia suspended its actions against China at the World Trade Organization and approved the Chinese lease of a critical port in Darwin. These steps are seen as confidence-building measures that set the stage for further dialogue and engagement.
However, analysts emphasize that despite these positive moves, the fundamental issues impacting the relationship persist. Both Australia and China are seeking to expand their influence in the Pacific Islands, a region of strategic importance. Moreover, Australia is updating its defense posture to counter China’s military buildup, adding another layer of complexity to the relationship. There is also a divergence in the perceived next steps for each side, with China expressing a desire to deepen the relationship, while Australia views stabilization as the current objective.
The historic ties between Australia and China are rooted in mutual benefit, with China’s emergence as an economic superpower driving the demand for Australian exports. This economic relationship has fueled Australia’s growth and facilitated cultural exchanges, resulting in a significant Chinese diaspora in Australia. However, cracks in the relationship appeared in 2018 when Australia banned Chinese company Huawei from participating in the development of the country’s 5G network. This decision was followed by Australia’s criticism of China’s actions in Hong Kong and its call for an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19.
The culmination of these tensions was Australia’s decision to join the Aukus security pact, seen by many as a long-term commitment to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. However, with a change in leadership, both Australia and China recognized the need for a thaw in relations. Australia has shifted its approach from confrontational to stabilization, seeking to avoid actions that could be perceived as weakness. The visit to China by Prime Minister Albanese is part of this recalibration, aiming to foster dialogue, understanding, and the defusion of tension.
Nonetheless, several issues remain unresolved, posing challenges to the relationship. One such issue is the imprisonment of Australian writer Yang Hengjun in China since 2019 on espionage charges. Calls for his release add a moral dimension to the diplomatic discussions. Additionally, Australia’s concerns over Chinese influence in the Pacific Islands region and China’s reaction to Australia’s defense posture overhaul complicate the path to reconciliation.
The relationship between Australia and China is heavily influenced by the United States, as the US continues to assert its dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. While China underwrites Australia’s prosperity, the balancing act between economic self-interest and alignment with the US shapes Australia’s approach to China. As Beijing looks for ways to expand the relationship, Australia remains guarded, treading carefully to avoid another period of strained ties.
The visit by Prime Minister Albanese holds significant potential for bilateral cooperation and the removal of trade barriers. However, experts do not anticipate any major announcements during the visit. Instead, the focus will be on building trust, understanding, and preventing miscalculations between two major military powers. The outcome of this visit will impact the future trajectory of Australia-China relations and reshape the dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.
