Climate change is an ever-increasing global challenge that demands urgent action. A recent analysis by the BBC has revealed that the world is breaching a crucial warming threshold at an alarming rate. On approximately one-third of the days in 2023, the average global temperature exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. This milestone is of significant concern as staying below this threshold is vital to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change.
2023 is currently on track to become the hottest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2016. Dr. Melissa Lazenby from the University of Sussex warns that these increasing temperature anomalies are a sign that the world is reaching unprecedented levels of warming. This disconcerting finding follows a series of extreme weather events and record-breaking September temperatures observed across various regions worldwide.
Political leaders from around the globe gathered in Paris in 2015 and signed an agreement to limit the long-term rise in global temperatures to well below 2C, with efforts to keep it below 1.5C. These limits refer to the temperature difference between current global averages and those of the pre-industrial period. Inching closer to breaching the 1.5C mark on individual days brings the planet closer to surpassing this limit over a 20 or 30-year average.
The analysis of data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service reveals a disheartening trend. As of October 2nd, there have been approximately 86 days in 2023 where temperatures exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. This surpasses the previous record set in 2016, signifying the potential gravity of the situation. Although there may be minor discrepancies due to global averaging, the substantial margin by which 2023 has exceeded the numbers from 2016 instills confidence that the record has already been broken.
One of the primary factors contributing to these temperature anomalies is the onset of El Niño conditions. While the current El Niño is weaker than its peak in 2016, it still facilitates the transfer of heat from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. Combined with the long-term warming caused by fossil fuel consumption, this mechanism explains the occurrence of the 1.5C anomaly between June and October, an unusual occurrence during the northern hemisphere summer.
September witnessed a continuation of temperature differences surpassing 1.5C, with some days even exceeding 1.8C above the pre-industrial average. The month as a whole was 1.75C warmer than the pre-industrial level, and the year overall stands at approximately 1.4C above the average from 1850-1900. While the total average for 2023 may not breach the 1.5C threshold, it remains on track to become the hottest year on record.
It is crucial to highlight that the world’s oceans have also experienced significantly higher temperatures in recent times. This warming effect further releases heat into the atmosphere, exacerbating the global warming crisis. The North Atlantic Ocean, in particular, is experiencing the warmest conditions ever recorded. The North Pacific Ocean also demonstrates an abnormally warm stretch of water extending from Japan to California.
Experts remain uncertain about the precise reasons behind these unprecedented sea temperature increases. However, one theory suggests that reduced air pollution from shipping across the North Atlantic may contribute to the phenomenon. The decrease in aerosols, which previously offset some greenhouse gas emissions by reflecting the sun’s energy, has potentially intensified the warming effect.
Antarctica also plays a role in the global temperature anomalies. Concerns surrounding the state of sea ice around the continent have persisted due to record-low levels during previous winters. However, recent temperature spikes in Antarctica, triggered by natural variability, have contributed to the global average temperature. It is challenging to determine the exact influence of long-term human-induced warming on these temperature deviations.
As the northern hemisphere transitions towards autumn and winter, the temperature differentials from the pre-industrial era are anticipated to persist. This expectation is particularly relevant as El Niño reaches its peak at the end of this year or early next year. Researchers emphasize that these ongoing high temperature anomalies should serve as a wake-up call for political leaders.
In November, political leaders will convene in Dubai for the COP28 climate summit. This alarming analysis underscores the need for urgent action on emissions, not solely in the long-term but also in the immediate present. The United Nations urged countries to accelerate climate action, emphasizing that effective emissions reduction strategies, such as embracing renewable energy and electric vehicles, are readily available.
Addressing this crisis requires a comprehensive approach. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) advises halving emissions within this decade and striving for net-zero emissions. The focus should not solely be on reaching net-zero by 2050 but also on developing pathways to achieve this goal. The consequences of climate change, evident in this year’s extreme weather events, amplify with each fraction of a degree of warming.
The breaching of the 1.5C warming threshold on an increasing number of days emphasizes the need for concerted efforts to combat climate change. Urgent action is required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, transition to sustainable energy alternatives, and prioritize effective climate policies. The consequences of inaction have become alarmingly apparent, underscoring the criticality of addressing this global crisis.
