Ten years after the peak of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group and the fall of its physical caliphate in Syria and Iraq, the threat of IS remains ever present. Despite losing its stronghold in Baghuz in 2019, IS has managed to expand its reach across multiple continents, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa. The rise of IS-Khorasan Province in Afghanistan and its role in recent mass casualty attacks in Moscow and Iran highlight the group’s continuing danger.
In Europe and the Middle East, IS remains a significant threat, inciting attacks through online propaganda and targeting regions with political instability and poor governance. The decline in physical territory has not diminished IS’s ability to recruit and inspire violence, especially in areas of Africa plagued by conflict.
The rivalry between IS and al-Qaeda continues, with both groups vying for influence and control in regions such as West Africa, the Lake Chad area, and northern Mozambique. Incompetence and instability within local governments have allowed IS to exploit vulnerabilities and establish a foothold in these areas.
With a focus on individual radicalization and decentralized attacks, IS poses a different kind of threat than in its peak years. The reliance on solo operators and online propaganda indicates a shift in tactics, as IS adapts to the changing landscape of counter-terrorism measures in Europe.
The lack of a charismatic, public leader like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi raises questions about the future of IS leadership and its ability to maintain relevance among followers. Despite this, the group’s recruitment efforts, use of AI-generated content, and focus on exploiting global conflicts underscore the persistent danger posed by IS a decade after its peak.
